Hong Kong stock AH premium index is approaching four-year low
Since late July, the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect AH premium index has continued to fall. It fell to a low of 115.53 points in the intraday trading last week, approaching the lowest point in more than four years. The data shows that among the constituents tracked by the index, the ratio of weighted blue-chip stocks has declined, while the performance of small-cap stocks has been relatively strong or even rising.
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Market participants said that the current investment style of the two funds has changed. A large number of foreign capital in the Hong Kong stock market is more inclined to low-risk industry leaders, focusing on medium and long-term dividends and industry fundamentals. In addition, the surge in the US dollar has led to the exchange rate with the US dollar. Hong Kong dollar assets are favored, so the weighted blue chips, especially financial stocks, have fallen, which has directly led to the overall downward trend of the AH share premium index. The small-cap stocks with better growth in the case of cautious sentiment in the Mainland are easily favored. The price of small cap stocks has risen.
AH premium index continues to fall
The Hang Seng AH premium Index is an index that calculates the weighted average premium of A shares relative to H shares based on the market capitalization of the A shares and H shares of the constituent stocks included in the index. The index is higher, representing the more expensive A shares relative to H shares, the index is lower, representing the cheaper A shares relative to H shares. Due to the existence of some factors, A shares have a long-term premium relative to H shares. According to industry insiders, if the market factor is not considered, the AH share premium index is more reasonable at around 120.
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Since February this year, the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect AH premium index has continued to fluctuate downwards after hitting a high of 138.96 points in the session. Since late July, the premium index has once again seen a new round of decline. It fell to a low of 115.53 points in intraday trading last Thursday, just one step away from the lowest point of 113.19 in the past four years since December 2014. As of last Friday's close, the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Exchange AH Index premium index was 116.37 points.
According to the data, the AH premium of 19 of the 99 constituent stocks tracked by the index is lower than the index average. Among them, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Merchants Bank, Guotai Junan, and ping An are among the eight blue-chip stocks in the financial sector. Meanwhile, BYD, Tsingtao Brewery, Fosun pharma, Vanke A and Sinopec More than 10 industry leaders such as Angang Steel Co., Ltd. also listed on the list; among them, shares of Angang Steel, ping An and Conch Cement were upside down. Although only 19 of the 99 constituent stocks have a premium to below the index average, these 19 companies are large-cap blue-chip stocks, especially in the financial sector, accounting for about 70% of the premium index, so the premium of these heavyweights Going lower is the direct driving force behind the downward trend of the index.
In addition, 7 of the constituent stocks tracked by the index are more than 3 times, namely, entrepreneurial environmental protection, Manor Ranch, Jingcheng Shares, Shandong Molong, Zhejiang Shibao, Green power and Luoyang Glass, among which Green power and Luoyang Glass The price is more than 5 times. However, it is worth noting that among the seven stocks with high price comparison, only the market value of green power and entrepreneurial environmental protection exceeded HK$10 billion, and the overall market value of stocks with high premiums was too small.
Fund style influence premium index
Market analysts said that the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect AH premium index continued to decline, mainly because the ratio of financial blue-chip stocks, which accounted for a large proportion of the index, continued to decline, and the investment style of funds was the main reason for this downturn.
First of all, since July, the market trends of the two places have not been satisfactory, so the investment sentiment of funds has been hit. At a time when investment sentiment is cautious, the Hong Kong stock market is able to attract foreign funds to participate in transactions, so the funds are much better, which supports the H-share price.
Secondly, despite the good performance support of large-cap financial stocks, mainland investors are more sensitive to the trend of macro-policies and their ability to resist risks is relatively low. In the Hong Kong stock market, more institutional investors, especially overseas funds, are more inclined to financial blue chips with fundamental and performance support, stable performance, low risk and stable dividends.
Third, during the year, the US dollar rose strongly, and the US dollar rose more than 5.75% against the RMB during the year. The Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar have been linked by the linked exchange rate system. The Hong Kong dollar against the RMB also rose by 5.17% during the year. International funds have now flowed to US dollar assets, and Hong Kong dollar assets have also borrowed the appreciation of the US dollar. The attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market to overseas funds has also increased.
In addition, the South Bank funds re-raised the financial blue chip. Although the Hong Kong Stock Connect funds continued to flow out of Hong Kong stocks for several months, in the recent weak performance of the HSI, funds once again showed a net inflow of financial sector blue chip weights. According to Wind Data, ICBC, China Construction Bank, China ping An and Agricultural Bank of China have invested 8.364 billion yuan, 2.181 billion yuan, 885 million yuan and 808 million respectively in the past 10 months. The yuan ranks in the top four. Although these net purchases are not too large compared to the market value of these giant financial stocks, the trend of Hong Kong stock exchange funds as an important indicator of market investment has also driven the market's investment sentiment.
Of course, mainland funds have recently spread due to cautious sentiment, and the funds are more inclined to better-quality small-cap stocks and growth stocks. This has led to the emergence of high-cap stocks in the AH stock premium index, even stocks. The index deviates from the upward trend, but market analysts said that the upward trend of small-cap stocks is not enough to drive the trend of the entire index. It is expected that the short-term Hong Kong stock market financial blue-chip performance will continue to be strong, and the AH share premium index will continue to be low. .
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The article was transferred from: http://www.xinhuanet.com/money/2018-08/20/c_1123294440.htm
